If you believe, as I do, that the primary factor in determining election outcomes is the economy, then tomorrow’s results have been a foregone conclusion for some time now. The midterms were more or less out of Obama’s control the day he signed off on a stimulus too small to create robust job growth. But what’s true of this election will be true of the election two years from now. And with a Republican Congress blocking new economic initiatives, Obama won’t have much ability to create jobs--or even help those who can’t find any. If the economy continues to recover this slowly, the Republicans won’t merely solidify their hold on Congress in two years. They’ll also be in a position to win the White House.
He also goes on to mention this much-circulated image, from the nightmare days when Sarah Palin first arrived on the national scene, and wonders if its message still rings true:
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe would consider the President "lucky" to be able to run against Sarah Palin in 2012. Obama would do well to ask his good friend and colleague Harry Reid how it feels to be an encumbant running against a manifestly unqualified candidate in a rocky economy.