How's this for navel gazing? The real list is supposed to come out tomorrow. Big news this year is they expanded the list up to ten in order to drum up interest and competition (ha!), and, ideally, to give exposure to more obscure films that don't get the attention they deserve (HA!). Perusing the list of movies that came out in 09, and based on reputation and visibility I predict:
Obvious Nominees
Avatar
Up
Up in the Air
Precious
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Crazy Heart
Movies I Had Forgotten About But Are Likely
Invictus
The Messenger
Nine (even though everybody seems to have hated it; call it this year's Benjamin Button)
These are all no-brainers, but there's always the chance the Academy will throw in a few curveballs to spice things up. These are still decidedly mainstream, as I don't think they have any interest in the indies.
Curveballs
A Serious Man
Fantastic Mr. Fox
A Single Man
That said, I think the main ten are pretty likely. If they really wanted to scramble things they would leave out Avatar, but Titanic's domination of 1997's Oscars and Avatar's grossly inappropriate Golden Globe win makes its selection, if not its coronation, a near certainty. But we'll find out tomorrow, won't we?
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