Oscar Predictions

Long story short: Birdman has the momentum, but the Academy doesn't like comedies, much less black comedies, and Boyhood's got a lot of good will. Boyhood will take the major awards, with Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel dividing a lot of the others. The Theory of Everything is a dark horse candidate for a lot of these, but despite its inconceivably strong Golden Globes showing, I can't imagine it walking away with much. The live action and documentary shorts I haven't seen and are a , crapshoot.

Those in the 'Should Win' category marked with an asterisk were not nominated. Seriously, Gone Girl got screwed.

BEST PICTURE
Will win: Boyhood
Should win: Boyhood

LEAD ACTOR
Will win: Eddie Redmayne
Should win: Michael Keaton, Timothy Spall*

LEAD ACTRESS
Will win: Julianne Moore
Should win: Rosamund Pike

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: J.K. Simmons
Should win: Edward Norton, Ethan Hawke

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Patricia Arquette
Should win: Patricia Arquette

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Should win: The Lego Movie*

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Birdman
Should win: Birdman, Mr. Turner

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

DIRECTING
Will win: Boyhood
Should win: Boyhood

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Citizenfour
Should win: Citizenfour

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Should win: Don't know

EDITING
Will win: Boyhood
Should win: Gone Girl*

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: Ida
Should win: Don't know

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Interstellar, Gone Girl*

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "Glory" from Selma
Should win: "Glory" from Selma

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Interstellar

ANIMATED SHORT
Will win: Feast
Should win: Feast

LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will win: Parvaneh
Should win: Don't know

SOUND EDITING
Will win: American Sniper
Should win: Interstellar

SOUND MIXING
Will win: American Sniper
Should win: Birdman

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: Interstellar
Should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: The Theory of Everything
Should win: Gone Girl*

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Birdman
Should win: Birdman