Oscar Predictions

I've seen scant few of these movies--The Social Network, Inception, and True Grit--and my predictions last year were a fairly awful 12/24. But naval-gazing is even more fun when you don't know what you're talking about, so here I go again.

My take is vaguely informed by these predictions, which boil it down to a Social Network/King's Speech race that has a lot to do with the generation gap. Regardless, I'm still mostly pulling my guesses out of the ether. After last year's .5 batting average, why not flip coins?

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Directing: David Fincher, The Social Network
Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Actress in a Leading Role: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Actress in a Supporting Role: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3, Lee Unkrich
Foreign Language Film: Dogtooth, Greece
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Writing (Original Screenplay): Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumber, The Kids Are All Right
Short Film (Animated): Day & Night, Teddy Newton
Short Film (Live Action): God of Love, Luke Matheny
Art Direction: The King's Speech
Cinematography: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Costume Design: The King's Speech, Jenny Beavan
Documentary (Feature): Restrepo, Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
Documentary (Short Subject): The Warriors of Qiugang, Ruby Yang & Thomas Lennon
Film Editing: Black Swan , Andrew Weisblum
Makeup: Barney's Version, Adrien Morot
Music (Original Score): The King's Speech, Alexandre Desplat
Music (Original Song): "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3, Music and Lyrics by Randy Newman
Sound Editing: Inception, Richard King
Sound Mixing: Inception
Visual Effects: Inception